Keeping Climate Scenarios Alive: From Disclosure to Decision-Making

Not even three months into 2025, we have seen LA wildfires, record ocean heat, warnings of oceanic current collapse, and political retreat from climate action. These aren’t isolated blips; they’re flashing red lights on the dashboard. The climate isn’t changing—it has changed. Add in a healthy dose of fragility in geopolitics and you have a very uncertain world to navigate. Scenarios can help organisations cut through this uncertainty, tracking signals that indicate whether we are heading toward a crisis, a transformation, or a tipping point. They aren’t just tools for disclosure; they are essential for adaptation and resilience in a world where the unexpected is becoming the norm.

While the drivers of developing climate scenarios often start with disclosure, their value extends far beyond regulatory compliance. Once crafted, these scenarios should not be left to gather dust in a report—rather, they can be dynamic, evolving tools that help organisations navigate uncertainty. A scenario is not just a snapshot in time; it is a living framework that should be continuously tested against real-world developments.

Tom Chermack, a leading expert in scenario planning, highlights that scenarios should function as an organisation's "radar" - constantly scanning for signals that indicate whether a given future is materialising. These signals are critical because they allow organisations to move beyond static plans and into proactive strategy-making. Instead of treating scenarios as hypothetical narratives for disclosure, they should be actively monitored to determine whether reality is aligning with one scenario over another.

Policy decisions, economic shifts, technological breakthroughs, and physical climate changes can dampen or amplify climate change risks and they do not occur in isolation - they interact in complex and often unpredictable ways.